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What is analyzing bookmaker odds, and how is it done?
Analyzing bookmaker odds refers to the betting odds or sports betting that bookmakers calculate for those participating in placing bets.
Currently, basic online betting types in football include: handicap bets, over/under bets, total goals, corner kicks, yellow card bets, correct score bets, etc.
Strategizing to grasp accurate odds will assist in devising the most suitable betting plans and approaches to winning.
At major bookmakers, there are teams of experts analyzing betting odds to calculate reasonable figures for bettors. These analysis teams do everything to create an advantage for the bookmakers.
This is why bookmakers tend to win in the long run when bettors engage consistently. To succeed, one must invest in learning how to analyze bookmaker odds and football betting.
Summing up the points above, it's crucial to understand where bookmaker odds and betting ratios originate, how they're regulated, and how bookmakers always hold an edge in this game.
Analyzing bookmaker odds when betting on the underdog
Only when one bets on the underdog can they gain experience. Betting on the underdog means the winning odds are increased by 40% since controlling underdog bets yields better betting outcomes.
If while betting on the underdog, you feel uncertain during a match, you can switch to betting on the favorite, thus having the chance to win both ways. Betting on the underdog is also a method to support effective flexible betting.
Analyzing bookmaker odds when the player is given a ¼ handicap
In the case where the home team gives a -¼ or -0.25 handicap, understanding why bookmakers set these odds is crucial.
Consider the following points when interpreting these odds:
Both the home and away teams have equally strong lineups.
The home team is given -0.25 due to their home ground advantage.
The home team's odds of winning at -0.94 are high, enticing bettors.
The away team's odds at 0.87 are low, suggesting caution in betting on this.
The over/under bet at 2 goals with odds at 0.90 is relatively high.
The bookmaker's odds for a draw (X) at 1.94 are fitting, indicating a possibility of a draw.
Based on these analyses, predictions can be made:
The away team has a good skill level and can match the home team.
Both teams will play defensively, resulting in fewer goals (given the 2-goal limit).
If the home team scores, the away team will likely intensify their offensive play (due to the high odds of a draw).
Strategies for such matches:
Betting on the underdog, SD Huesca +0.25.
Monitor the match closely: if the away team scores first, stick to the underdog bet. If Real Valladolid (the home team) scores first, consider over 2 or over 1.75 bets since the away team might equalize.
If by the 70th minute, the away team leads 0-1, consider a half-bet on over 1.5 goals. In the final 20 minutes, the home team might push for an equalizer.
Analyzing bookmaker odds when the home team is given a 1.5 handicap or more
This scenario commonly occurs in European championships where top-ranking teams face those near the bottom. In these matches, the away team is significantly stronger, leading to high handicaps set by bookmakers, sometimes disproportionately high considering the actual form of the players.
Weather conditions and the difficulty of the pitch may also affect these odds. The players' physical condition before the match is hard to predict, yet bookmakers still set deep handicaps.
To win these types of bets, besides understanding how to analyze bookmaker odds, one must diligently update themselves with sports news, read reports, and attend press conferences held by the teams before the match.
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How to Analyze Soccer Betting Odds from Bookmakers When Players Want to Bet
To learn how to effectively analyze soccer betting odds, it's advisable to analyze the match situation an hour before the game takes place. By then, the bookmakers have usually set the odds, which are less likely to fluctuate continuously throughout the day.
At that point, three scenarios might occur:
Odds for the favored team increase – the handicap odds rise – the payout odds decrease.
If the odds for the favored team increase, the handicap will rise, or the payout odds will decrease compared to the odds from the previous day. In this case, analyze as follows:
For the team with lower odds: There may be issues like changes in the lineup, key players injured, coach dismissal, internal team conflicts, FIFA penalties, etc.
For the team with higher odds: They might field their strongest lineup, with players in top form.
Favorable weather conditions supporting the team's style of play could result in a higher probability of the favored team winning.
The experience in analyzing odds would be:
Bet on the favored team if playing live betting, but be cautious. If you engage in online betting, avoid rushing to place bets; wait for the match to progress for about 10 minutes.
After 10 minutes, the odds for the favored team will decrease with time, which is a suitable time to bet on them.
Odds for the favored team decrease – the handicap odds drop – the payout odds increase.
In this scenario, the favored team's evaluation has diminished or the underdog team is viewed more favorably than the odds from the previous day. This causes a decrease in the odds for the favored team and an increase in payout odds. Consider the following:
For the team considered the underdog: They might be in good form in recent matches, with a full lineup of key players and the best quality.
For the favored team: Key players might be injured, the lineup may have issues, a new coach could be dismissed, or crucial players might receive red cards.
Unfavorable weather conditions that hinder the favored team's style of play could be a factor.
How to analyze soccer betting odds in this scenario:
If you're playing live, ignore this match; it's not worth continuing.
For online betting, don't rush in too early; wait for the official lineups, assess the teams' strengths compared to the initial expectations, and consider the weather conditions.
It's better to skip betting in the first half; wait for the second half for betting opportunities and assess the match score by then.
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Closing Remarks:
Learning how to analyze soccer betting odds helps reduce losses and achieve around a 65% success rate in earning profits. In this field, never consider yourself a master or expert because in soccer, anything can happen. Wins and losses are normal. Set strict rules for yourself, and success in betting on soccer lies in choosing the right bets.